A different look: Ulster County active case chart shows decline

From the beginning of the pandemic, the most commonly cited piece of data has been confirmed cases. How many does one country/state/county/city have? What is the rate of increase? As a cumulative measurement, confirmed cases can never decrease; the curve can flatten to a horizontal line if the virus is completely extirpated, but it will never go to zero. 

Beginning today, Ulster County is showing active rather than confirmed cases as the main graph on its COVID-19 page, a regular destination for many residents. The math goes like this: active cases = confirmed cases – (recovered cases + deaths). The result shows a peak of 1025 active infections on April 26, followed by a decline to 792 yesterday.

We asked what prompted the change.

“We are currently looking at new ways to help residents better understand where we are,” was the reply from Deputy County Executive Dan Torres.

The cumulative case total is 1414 and the recovered total is 578. Here’s the chart showing cumulative (red) and recovered cases (beneath in light green).

Ulster’s testing continues to increase. The county opened up a third mobile testing site in Midtown Kingston last week. Ulster has already tested all residents and workers at two of its 13 nursing homes and plans to do the same at the others. Results from this testing caused noticeable one-day spikes in cases due to a high rate of positive cases (around 20-30 percent in each), though many were asymptomatic. Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan said last week that he expects to see confirmed cases continue to climb as testing expands. (More info on how to get tested.)

Below is the chart showing negative tests vs. confirmed cases:

Here’s a comparison of active vs. confirmed cases in each town:

In other recovery news, Ed Lundergan and Carol Giannone Lundergan of New Paltz, who were among the first local residents to be diagnosed and tested positive a second time after they thought they’d recovered, have both tested negative and will be donating their antibodies as part of the state’s convalescent plasma program.

In sad news, Ulster’s death toll has nearly doubled since last week. It now stands at 44.