The November numbers are now in, and there are few signs in them of the long-predicted forecasts of a gradual cooling of the marketplace for residential real estate in the Hudson Valley in general and in Ulster County in particular. According to industry sources, 154 Ulster County homes were sold this November compared to 141 last November at a median selling price of $465,000 this November in contrast to $410,000 in November 2023 — a year-to-year jump of 13.4 percent.
Local sales prices continued to increase at a more rapid rate than they did in the state as a whole. Sales statewide decreased slightly in the past year, but median prices increased from $370,000 to $405,000 — a 9.5 percent gain.
New York State and local year-to-year third-quarter and October activity fail to show a different pattern of activity.
Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve data shows the national residential price index, which is based on a HUD federal census, decreasing from a high of 442.6 in the last quarter of 2022 to 420.4 in the third quarter of 2024.
The housing marketplace
In the short term, rental prices don’t change at the same pace and in the same direction as sales do. Absent effective price controls, there is a close correlation between the two in the longer term.
The November Beige Book of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides an assessment of the latest trends. The regional housing market remains solid. Demand was strong in and around New York City and steady upstate, it reported.
“The rental market firmed slightly,” said the Fed research study. “Demand for rental housing rose somewhat, as rising mortgage rates pushed some potential buyers back to the rental market. Rents in New York City increased after a brief plateau, and vacancy rates have remained low. Outside New York City, rental vacancy rates have risen slightly, and rents have stabilized at a high level.”
Other Fed statistics show that average new renters paid $200 a month more in rent in 2023 than they had paid in 2019. For single-family rentals, the new rentals averaged more than $300 a month higher.
With the passage of its City of Yes changes, New York City has moved closer to the prize-winning Kingston model of using zoning flexibility inducements as tools for providing increased affordable housing.
The housing squeeze continues. The Hudson Valley and Long Island regions continued this November to experience the highest rates of price increases in the state.
Prices for both sales and rentals of Ulster County real estate vary considerably depending on location, of course. Because of limited availability and differences in size and condition, it’s no easy to pin down even price ranges.
Most monthly rentals in high-priced Woodstock seem in the $3000-to-$5000 range. In Saugerties, most are in the $2500 range, with some village properties considerably lower. Kingston varies from as little as $1200 to over $2000. Student-oriented New Paltz apartments are in the $1100 to $2000 range, with multiple occupancy almost universal.
The wealthy and the poor
The beginning of 2025 is as good a time as any to ask ourselves what is behind this continued robust marketplace performance. The landscapes of the Catskills and the Hudson Valley are the same as ever. For most residents, the economy isn’t exactly sparkling. There hasn’t been significant change in the amount of crime or drug use. Though eroded somewhat, traditional community life persists.
After paying New York City rents, high-income people from New York City find Hudson Valley housing cheap. The creative knowledge workers and professionals from the city have plenty of money to buy or rent housing even in high-priced metros, famed urbanologist Richard Florida pointed out in an interview with an organization called Vital City last June.
“So the housing price really reflected the wages and incomes of this privileged third to 40 percent of the workforce,” he said. “The people who got fucked — sorry for my evocative language — were the working and service classes.”
The local housing crunch is self-perpetuating. The more that urban New Yorkers of means and privilege select Ulster County as a place to establish a second home, a preferred BnB destination, or just a nice place to visit because of its progressive politics and environmental awareness, the more housing costs will become less affordable for local residents with service or working-class jobs.
Research has confirmed a very close correlation between income inequality in communities and the proportion of the privileged. Many lower-income residents can’t find housing they can afford.
So a large degree of inequality breeds righteous social discontent. That’s no surprise.
Florida worries about the privileged newcomers as well.
“It’s very hard for strangers to come together and become part of a community in a car-dominated suburb,” he told Vital City “You become a really isolated human being, and that’s what worries me.”
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