Though there’s been a recent significant sign that Ulster County, there are indicators that congressmember Pat Ryan may be in for a challenging time in his reelection bid this November. The political picture is extremely complex, with many factors at play.
After redistricting left the boundaries of the two other mid-Hudson Valley congressional incumbents not much changed — like Ryan’s — first-term Republican incumbents Marc Molinaro and Mike Lawler will also face close races. The results in these three districts could well be decisive in the battle for control of the House of Representatives this November.
All three mid-Hudson congressional races were squeakers — 51 percent to 49 percent — in 2022. Ryan defeated Republican ex-assemblymember Colin Schmitt by 3500 votes out of 267,000 cast. Lawler beat incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney by about 4000 out of 285,000 cast, and Molinaro won by 4500 votes out of 287,000 over Josh Riley, who will oppose him again this November.
Lawler will be facing Mondaire Jones, a previous congressmember who over the years has run in several congressional districts. Lawler already has a fundraising Internet ad accusing Jones “with his far-left ideology” of wanting to defund the police.
The Ulster County Democrats have been operating under the assumption that time is on their side. The population influx from five-to-one-Democratic New York City will continue, they think, and in just a few years Democratic political enrollment will be double that of Republican enrollment.
Unfortunately for Ryan’s prospects, what happens in Ulster County stays in Ulster County. What is happening in terms of enrollment in his home county seems not to be happening in Dutchess and Orange counties.
Recent party enrollments
New York State keeps track of party enrollment at election time in November and again at the end of February. That data provides an early snapshot of trends in each county.
There were 374 additional Democratic enrollees and 162 additional Republican enrollees in Ulster County between November 7, 2023 and February 27, 2024, no additional Conservative Party enrollees and 39 added Working Families enrollees. During the same period, 450 persons were added to the number of the so-called NEs, those not enrolled in any party.
The picture was very different in Dutchess County, which except for its two southernmost townships is entirely in Ryan’s congressional district. In Dutchess County, the Democrats gained 490 enrollees and the Republicans 442, with 43 additional Conservatives and 28 Working Families adherents added. There were also 720 more NEs.
So Dutchess County is pretty much breakeven territory these days.
Not so in Orange County, which in 2024 remains in its entirely represented in Congress by Ryan. From Ryan’s political perspective, the Orange County number are ominous. There’s a distinct undertow in Orange County that could bode well for his November opponent, Alison Costanza, a MAGA-oriented ex New York City police officer who ran a credible state-level race for lieutenant governor on ex-congressmember Lee Zeldin’s unsuccessful ticket against governor Kathy Hochul in 2022.
The number of Democrats enrolled in Orange County actually decreased in the three-and-a-half-month period by two (from 90,508 to 90,506), while the Republicans added 354 enrollees. In addition to ten more enrolled Conservatives and 13 Working Families members, 860 Orange County registrants enrolled as NEs. This distinct undertow in Orange County could bode well for Ryan’s November opponent.
Pluses and minuses
The Gardiner resident and congressmember has both the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. A moderately progressive middle-of-the-Democratic-road politico, the West Point graduate serves on the House Armed Service and Transportation and Infrastructure committees. Minority members don’t get as much from member items, formerly known as pork, as majority members, but they get quite a bit. On March 24, for instance, Ryan announced that he had secured a million dollars in federal funding for the Rumshock Veterans Foundation to build ten homes for veterans in Port Jervis.
In these restless times, being an incumbent means facing charges of being part of a corrupt and amoral political system for whom losing the next election is the most appropriate punishment. His opponent last time out, Colin Schmitt, was an ambitious former assemblymember not entirely beloved within his own party. Even so, Schmitt beat Ryan by almost six thousand votes in Orange County — a margin the Democrats was only able to overcome by securing a plurality in the Dutchess County portion of the district and doing very well in that portion of Ulster County included in the congressional district.
The recent redistricting has added Saugerties, Woodstock and the Town of Ulster to the congressional district, and removed Rosendale, Marbletown, Rochester, Shawangunk, part of Wawarsing and part of Gardiner from it. In the swap, Ryan has gained about 1000 Democratic-leaning voters — not much but potentially decisive in an election cliffhanger.
Last time out in the presidential year, the local turnout was about 30 percent higher than in the non-presidential election year. The preferences of that 30 percent will decide who will win each of the three congressional races. Who will the additional voters turn to?
From seven months out, Ryan’s November election seems from here an emotional event. In the Biden-versus-Trump marquee reprise year, Alison Costanza’s firebrand take-no-prisoners style will either win her down-ballot voter support or give Pat Ryan another congressional victory.
What will the outcome be?
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