New York State’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) has submitted a single map containing the bipartisan ten-member body’s recommendations for congressional boundaries in this November’s election. The new map largely resembles the court-drawn map that helped Republicans pick up seats in 2022.
The major change in the map is in two Hudson Valley districts, the 19th CD presently represented by Democrat Pat Ran and the 20th by Republican Marcus Molinaro. With the new boundaries, Ryan would be returning more to his Ulster County roots. The IRC-proposed boundary changes would move much of northern Ulster County from Molinaro’s district to Ryan’s.
The boundaries of the 18th CD lower in the Hudson Valley, represented by freshman Republican moderate Mike Lawler of Rockland County, will be virtually unchanged under the IRC proposal. Legislative Democrats discontented with the IRC’s status-quo proposals have only a few days to replace the proposed map that nine of the IRC members support with one more favorable to their party. They have reserved for themselves the right to do so. Will they exercise that right?
Because of the narrow Republican margin of control of the present House of Representatives – three seats after Tom Suozzi’s victory in disgraced George Santos’ former district — the decision is consequential. The 25-member congressional delegation in heavily Democratic New York State now consists of 15 Democrats and ten Republicans. After redistricting, the Democrats had hoped to pick up as many as four more seats from the GOP. Unless they take control of the process rather than accept the IRC’s recommendations, they won’t.
Ryan’s current district includes all Orange County, much of Dutchess, and southeastern Ulster County as far north as Kingston. The remainder of Ulster County is in Molinaro’s district.
In return for heavily Democratic northern Ulster, Molinaro would gain normally Republican areas further to the north closer to Albany. Should they run again within the proposed new boundaries, both Ryan and Molinaro would end up enlarging their district party enrollment advantage from a percentage point or two to an estimated six to eight points.
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