Can Schreibman catch Gibson?

(Illustration by Will Dendis)

In the face of ugly numbers in a non-partisan Sienna poll and unsettling cracks in his Democratic Party base, Julian Schreibman is going on the attack as he seeks to portray incumbent Congressman Chris Gibson as a Medicaid-gutting, anti-abortion radical Republican. It’s a message the onetime Federal Prosecutor and Ulster County Democratic Committee Chairman hopes will resonate in a newly drawn congressional district that includes large swaths of voters who, for the past two decades have been represented by Liberal Lion Maurice Hinchey.

The strategy, which has played out in recent weeks in a series of Schreibman attack ads citing Gibson’s record on Medicare may be paying off. A new poll by a left leaning research firm shows Schreibman closing the gap among voters. Perhaps more importantly Schreibman appears to be winning the money race. Last week the Albany Times Union reported that Schreibman raised $535,000 in campaign cash during the third quarter of the year, beating out Gibson by about $125,000. As the race enters a final phase that will include a series of candidate debates, and a relentless schedule of public events and fundraisers across a sprawling 11-county district, both campaigns are would like to make the contest a referendum on Gibson’s two-year record in Congress. But, what that record is, and what it means is at the heart of the struggle.

Gibson, a highly decorated former Army officer from Kinderhook is reaching out to voters as a pragmatic, middle of the road Republican more interested in results than ideology. Over the course of a 45 minute interview, Gibson offers warm words for half a dozen local Democrats, including Kingston Mayor Shayne Gallo and County Executive Mike Hein in between detail-rich discourses on agricultural policy and the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Irene. On Obama-care, Gibson forgoes talk of “socialized medicine” or “rationed healthcare” before launching into his six point prescription to replace the Affordable Care Act with a mix of Republican initiatives like tort reform and laws to allow people to purchase insurance across state lines.

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“The President had the right idea, to drive down costs and expand access,” said Gibson. “I just don’t think that it’s going to live up to expectations.”

Burnishing his middle of the road credentials, Gibson touts his vote earlier this year for a bipartisan budget plan in line with the recommendations of the Simpson-Bowles Commission and his rating by The Washington Post as the “third most independent” member of congress (Gibson voted with the Republican Majority in congress 74 percent of the time during the 2011 term). Gibson holds a 52 percent rating from the American Conservative Union based on his 2011 voting record compared with 72 percent for fellow Hudson Valley Republican and Tea Party favorite Nan Hayworth. The outspokenly progressive Hinchey merited only a 4 percent rating from the conservative group.

 

Gibson tacking left?

In response, Schreibman and his supporters have built a campaign on exposing what they say is truth about Gibson: That he is, in the words of one observer “a right winger trying to tack left” to win within new district lines where Republicans and Democrats are nearly evenly split. (In Gibson’s soon to be defunct district, Republicans hold a comfortable enrollment advantage). Schreibman has hammered his opponent on his vote to prohibit federal funding of Planned Parenthood (Gibson says he is pro-choice but does not support using taxpayer money to fund abortions) and other conservative cause. But it was Gibson’s 2011 vote for the so-called Ryan budget that has formed the tip of the spear in Schreibman’s assault on Gibson’s voting record. In particular, a section of the budget proposed by Wisconsin Congressman and Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan which would, over time replace the government-run Medicare program for senior citizens with a voucher program which would offer them money to buy insurance from the private sector.

A series of Schreibman-sponsored attack ads aired in recent weeks seeks to turn the 2011 vote into a millstone around Gibson’s neck with images of angry, frightened seniors questioning Gibson’s plans to “gut” Medicare and “turn it into a coupon program.” “Why do you want to hurt us” asks an elderly woman looking into the camera in the latest Schreibman ad. Gibson, who has so far eschewed negative advertising, responded with his own spot featuring soft guitar music, gentle reassurances, and his mother.

But while Gibson has avoided attack ads, GOP strategist Karl Rove’s Crossroads Global Policy Strategies super PAC has not. The independent political group recently paid $460,000 to air an ad linking Schreibman’s support for Obamacare to supposed tax hikes and “unelected Washington Bureaucrats” in charge of seniors’ health care. Gibson, who voted against the 2012 version of the Ryan budget in favor of a bipartisan plan, calls the attacks a gross distortion. The proposals he voted for, Gibson said, would have no impact on current seniors and would protect the interests of future seniors. But Schreibman invokes a quote from Harry Truman when he defends the negative campaigning.

“People say I’m giving them hell,” said Schreibman. “But I’m giving them the truth and it feels like hell.”

 

No Schreibman record to run on

If Gibson is working to defend his record, Schreibman is challenged by having to run without one. Other than a failed attempt to secure the Democratic Party nomination for Ulster County District Attorney in 2008, this is his first campaign for public elective office. While Gibson began the campaign with high name recognition, at least in parts of the district like Columbia County that he currently represents, Schreibman began his run as a virtual unknown outside of Ulster County Democratic circles. A mid-September poll by the Siena Research Institute showed Gibson holding a commanding 52 to 26 percent lead over Schreibman district-wide. In parts of the new district currently represented by Gibson, the lead was closer to 35 percent. According to the poll, two thirds of voters hadn’t even heard of Schreibman in September and those who had were evenly divided in their opinion. Among Democrats, the poll found, 21 percent said that they would vote for Gibson.

Schreibman, some Ulster County Democrats say, may also be hampered by baggage from his tenure as Chairman of the Ulster County Democratic Committee which was marked by some high profile electoral losses and inter-party feuds. In fact, two well known players in Ulster County Democratic circles, former county chairman John Parete and former Saugerties party chair Bruce Tuchman are holding a Gibson fundraiser at Parete’s Boiceville Inn, in the heart of Hinchey’s northern Ulster County home-base. Other local Democrats wonder why Schreibman put himself forward for the Congressional race instead of recruiting an Ulster County Democrat with more name recognition.

“He lost the legislature, he didn’t recruit any candidates and he didn’t raise any money,” said one elected official, speaking on the condition of anonymity in the interest of party unity. “The guy burned a lot of bridges with his own party.”

But supporters like Kingston Alderman Tom Hoffay say that Schreibman’s strategy of linking Gibson to the more extreme elements in the GOP will pay off among the coalition of Hinchey voters, inter-party politics aside. Hoffay added that a likely Obama sweep in the Presidential election and the fact that many in the new district are unfamiliar with Gibson offered Schreibman a path to victory.

“Most progressive people in Kingston do not want to be represented by someone who voted for the Ryan budget,” said Hoffay. “I think President Obama is going to sweep the Hudson Valley and that’s going to help Schreibman.”

 

Dueling polls

As for the dismal poll numbers, Schreibman chalked them up to the fact that the survey was taken before his campaign took to the airwaves with its latest ad blitz. On Tuesday, October 9 his campaign touted a new Grove Poll showing Schreibman pulling within striking distance of Gibson. According to the poll, Gibson held a 43-41 percent lead over Gibson with 16 percent of voters undecided. Schreibman attributed the poll numbers to voters upset over Gibson’s “Tea Party” votes. Gibson staffers meanwhile cast a skeptical eye on the poll which was conducted by a partisan research firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. One Gibson staffer said the poll looked like the work of national Democratic Party officials looking to shore up a faltering campaign. But Gibson himself said that he was not getting complacent. The attack ads, he said would have an impact. The strong support in the Siena Poll shown in the portion of his old district still involved in this race, Gibson contended, showed that he had support across party lines and, the goal now, he said, was to convince thousands of new constituents to send him back to Washington.

“The people who know me best support my re-election,” said Gibson. “They understand my approach, they understand my record.”

There are 2 comments

  1. Bruce Tuchman

    I do not believe that the Schreibman attacks on Gibson will do much. If you know Gibson then you know he is honest and has integrity. If you know Schreibman then you know he has made lots of statements and has not backed them up with action. He was a terrible ADA who had more cases reversed that any other ADA in Ulster County. As a Democratic Party Chair, he lost more races and lost the County Democratic Control of the Legislature. De clearly divided the Democratic party in this area. Out of Ulster County nobody knows who he is. He will get the standard Democratic vote minus the Democrats who know him for what he is.

  2. Bruce Tuchman

    NO he can’t. As atated above, Julian has no good record to refer to. He has a record but nothing he wants to talk about.

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