Using New York State’s dashboard for Covid 19 deaths and assuming that the number of deaths would decrease at the rate it has been decreasing , we predicted last week that the state mortality rate from the pandemic would drop in the next seven days from 32 deaths per day to 23.
We were wrong. The actual figure through this Saturday was 21 deaths in the state daily. The pandemic is fast receding.
Follow the science, the scientists say. The fact is that we really don’t know for sure how anything we’re doing or not doing is contributing to how the numbers are changing. Is mask-wearing helping a lot? Should we no longer worry about congregating at large gatherings? Are the kids going to be safe at school?
We’re just guessing, and we can still guess.
Our guess is that there will be an average of 17 Covid fatalities daily in the Empire State this coming week.
Do we want to bet on it?