With two weeks until Election Day, the race in New York’s 19th Congressional District is a dead heat. According to a Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely voters released yesterday:
- 44 percent support incumbent John Faso (R)
- 43 percent support Antonio Delgado (D)
- 5 percent support Diane Neal (I)
- 1 percent support Steve Greenfield (Green)
- 7 percent undecided
The poll has a 4.6 percent margin of error.
“Barnburner. Nail biter. Photo finish. Pick your phrase and buckle up because this race is going right down to the wire,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Faso and Delgado are locked in a battle royale with the electorate about as evenly divided as it can be.”
The poll found Faso has a slight edge despite a worse favorability rating; 40 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable vs. 42-41 for Delgado.
The gender divide is stark, with Faso capturing 53 percent of the male vote vs. 35 percent of the female vote, and Delgado the near inverse, 52 percent female and 34 percent male.
In such a close race, the effect of third-party candidates could be decisive. The poll found independent candidate Diane Neal’s support came from more Republicans than Democrats, 5 percent vs. 2 percent, with 7 percent from voters not enrolled in a party. Green Party candidate Steve Greenfield receive support from 2 percent Democrats and 2 percent Republican.
The poll found fewer undecideds among Democrats (4 percent) than Republicans (9 percent) or independents (8 percent).
Across the district, President Donald Trump was slightly underwater, with 46 percent approving of the job he’s doing vs. 49 percent disapproving.
“This race all comes down to turnout. In a district that has virtually the same number of Republicans and Democrats and a race that has voters nearly evenly divided, the key will be which campaign does a better job of getting its voters to the polls,” Greenberg said. “Answer that question and predicting the winner of this race is easy.”