Poll: Faso and Delgado separated by just 1 point

From left: John Faso (incumbent, Republican), Antonio Delgado (Demcorat), Steve Greenfield (Green), Diane Neal (independent)

With two weeks until Election Day, the race in New York’s 19th Congressional District is a dead heat. According to a Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely voters released yesterday:

  • 44 percent support incumbent John Faso (R)
  • 43 percent support Antonio Delgado (D)
  • 5 percent support Diane Neal (I)
  • 1 percent support Steve Greenfield (Green)
  • 7 percent undecided

The poll has a 4.6 percent margin of error.

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“Barnburner. Nail biter. Photo finish. Pick your phrase and buckle up because this race is going right down to the wire,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Faso and Delgado are locked in a battle royale with the electorate about as evenly divided as it can be.”

The poll found Faso has a slight edge despite a worse favorability rating; 40 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable vs. 42-41 for Delgado.

The gender divide is stark, with Faso capturing 53 percent of the male vote vs. 35 percent of the female vote, and Delgado the near inverse, 52 percent female and 34 percent male.

In such a close race, the effect of third-party candidates could be decisive. The poll found independent candidate Diane Neal’s support came from more Republicans than Democrats, 5 percent vs. 2 percent, with 7 percent from voters not enrolled in a party. Green Party candidate Steve Greenfield receive support from 2 percent Democrats and 2 percent Republican.

The poll found fewer undecideds among Democrats (4 percent) than Republicans (9 percent) or independents (8 percent).

Across the district, President Donald Trump was slightly underwater, with 46 percent approving of the job he’s doing vs. 49 percent disapproving.

“This race all comes down to turnout. In a district that has virtually the same number of Republicans and Democrats and a race that has voters nearly evenly divided, the key will be which campaign does a better job of getting its voters to the polls,” Greenberg said. “Answer that question and predicting the winner of this race is easy.”

There are 9 comments

  1. Bruce Tuchman

    For what it’s worth, in a recent debate Delgado stated that Israel was not a Jewish Democracy. You can search the clips on YouTube or Facebook. He was very ill informed on this very complicated topic and only spouted the party line sound bites. He should do more studying on the topic. Just my opinion based on 24 years of studying the subject. this might work – https://youtu.be/ss11kijfjhg

  2. Abby

    For those questioning Delgado on this – he did clarify his statement, which he also did in the debate. The video going around wont tell you any of that. I truly wish people would stop spreading lies and taking things out of context. Antonio Delgado is by far the better choice. And NY19 deserves better than John Faso. The last 2 years have proven that. Faso has refused to hold town halls and face his constitutes – he is a coward, he voted to repeal the ACA – which would hurt those with pre-existing conditions AND the GOP sabotage raised our premiums, he voted against equal pay for women, lied on camera to a constitute’s face and is now attacking her, his own constitute, on his website. Watch THAT video and Andrea’s follow up to Faso’s attack.

    Faso has to go. We need a congressman that works for ALL the people of NY19 and will stand up for this district, not hide and then hurt us in DC. Vote Delgado for NY19.

  3. Democracy Must Survive

    Just know this FACT: As much as the Conservative agenda bills “liberals” as mobs and lunatics THE FACT IS THAT BOMBS HAVE BEEN MAILED TO THE HOMES OF SOROS, CLINTON, AND OBAMA.

    WEAPONS MEANT TO INJURE AND KILL – SENT TO LIBERALS MOST CLEARLY BY CONSERVATIVE FORCES…ONE PARTY ACTUALLY WANTS TO DO GOOD IN THIS COUNTRY AND ONE PARTY ONLY WANTS TO REPRESENT THE FAR RIGHT EXTREMISM THROUGH NATIONALISM, RACISM, FRAUD, LIES, AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS THAT HAVE NO INTEREST IN YOUR PERSONAL RIGHTS.

    THERE IS ONLY ONE RIGHT WAY TO VOTE TO KEEP CHECKS AND BALANCES ON THIS PRESIDENT AND HIS BAND OF LUNATICS…VOTE TO OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES AND MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD THAT THREATS, VIOLENCE, GERRYMANDERING OF DISTRICTS, OBSTRUCTION OF VOTING RIGHTS IS NOT OK…IT IS NOT OK.

  4. P

    When Delgado was asked how he was going to bring healthcare to everyone, he stated, “with love.” Well, it takes more than love to pay the bills. Delgado is clueless. It’s getting pretty tiring watching all these politicians tell us how bad Trump is and how their going to change things, but than never come up with concrete plans or budgets. Vote for who you like, but until one of these new so called politicians comes up with a plan, I’m voting in Faso. He’s at least for the second amendment, something I agree with.

  5. constance bailey

    You don’t have to be a liberal or even a Democrat to vote blue this time around. Americans of many different political persuasions will be voting to save our two-party system, freedom of the press, secure elections, basic civil rights, and a strong, independent judiciary.

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