Clinton’s weakness, Trump’s strength, evident in Hudson Valley election results

There was never any doubt that New York State would go to Hillary Clinton. In the Mid-Hudson Valley, most were watching the race for the open 19th Congressional seat that pitted Republican John Faso against Democrat Zephyr Teachout. Would voters punish Faso for not distancing himself from Donald J. Trump following several comments/recordings which seemed, at the time, potentially disqualifying? Would Teachout, whose surprisingly strong 2014 primary challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo put her on the map, overcome the “carpet-bagger” charge and pull the swing district in a progressive direction?

Well, it turned out that race wasn’t particularly close either. Faso won by 10 points. An early night.

Statewide, with 2016 tallies still unofficial, Clinton had a 59 percent to Trump’s 38 percent — not quite the margin Obama had over Romney, but close.

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In the Mid-Hudson Valley, Clinton ran behind Obama and Trump ran ahead of Romney at every step, sometimes by a wide margin.

by-county

A look at Ulster, Dutchess, Greene and Columbia county results (2012 official, 2016 unofficial). The Democratic candidate won counties shaded blue, the Republican candidate, red, with the shade indicating the vote share.

Percentage change in GOP and Democratic presidential vote share, 2012 vs. 2016.

Percentage change in GOP and Democratic presidential vote share, 2012 vs. 2016.

Interestingly, the four counties we looked at all varied more widely than the state as a whole. In general, Clinton underperformed Obama by a wider margin than Trump overperformed Romney.

With downstate areas reliably putting up huge numbers for Democrats, these type of swings aren’t consequential for New York State’s electoral votes. But in the coming weeks, as more analysis is done in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and the sociology behind this surprising upset reveals itself, the lessons will apply in our neck of the woods as well.

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